Today marks three years since the beginning of Russia’s needless and embarrassing three-day special operation war in Ukraine. I very fervently wish I had been wrong about the length of the conflict.

As a Finn, it’s a little bewildering to think that technically our neighboring country is at war, for the fighting is so distant, literally a thousand kilometers away. Or was initially; as the years have gone by, action has been inching closer.

For one, Ukraine has started striking at targets within Russia. The closest target facility to us (so far, I think) is in Ust-Luga on the Gulf of Finland (its seaport handling oil and gas has seen more than one drone hit). That’s some 200 km / 130 miles as the bird flies from Helsinki—not that far away, really.

For another, there’s increased harassment outside active conflict zones. The biggest change in our neck of the woods came after Finland’s record-fast NATO membership in April 2023. Russian planes have a long history of breaching Finnish airspace from time to time, either as a test or out of boredom, or I don’t even know why. That’s nothing new, and they’ve continued the habit. In addition, now we and our European allies are facing acts like suspected potential sabotage of undersea cables and other forms of attempted hybrid influencing—break-ins at water treatment plants or reservoirs, unidentified drone sightings, hacking of computer systems, instrumentalizing of migrants heading to the EU, incendiary parcels, and GPS jamming, among others.

Reportedly, this type of disruption has been called “cognitive warfare”. The feel I get is that at the national level this sort of pestering is largely seen as an attempt at provocation, an old tactic we have some experience with.

From my point of view, the conflict in Ukraine feels like a proxy war. Their ability to mount an effective defense keeps the rest of us on the perimeter of Russia’s ambitions safe—or if not safe, exactly, at least safer and at least for now. As awful as it is, I kinda want the war to go on longer, because it engages Russia’s forces and focus in one place; when it ends, they will again have the resources to plan “special operations” elsewhere. Continuing conflict gives us time to update our readiness plans, train with NATO and JEF forces, and channel more help to Ukraine.

But at the same time, I definitely do not want the war to continue. It’s dreadful, and it needs to end, with Ukraine’s independence intact. Please and thank you.

Images: Field in Ukraine by Oleksandr K via Flickr (CC BY-SA 2.0). Map of Ust-Luga on the Baltic Sea via Mapcarta.

When the suckage just sucks too much.